The International Energy Agency (IEA) has just published its long awaited World Energy Outlook 2008 . A highly recommended read.
A quick first summary with more analysis to come:
The current financial crisis could well lead to a growing worldwide petroleum shortage in the short to medium term. The crisis has lead to a decrease in crude oil prices (see our stats in the left column of the page). Oil companies are therefore not making the profits hoped for and some have started cutting or delaying new projects. IEA expects that oil prices will bounce back up to around 100 dollars per barrel in 2010.
IEA predicts that world oil demand will rise to 106 million barrels of oil per day in 2030, as compared to around 82 million barrels per day right now. This increase in demand will be caused, primarily, by increased demands from China and India.
The IEA is worried that this increasing demand can not be met by the oil producers. It studied 800 large oil fields in production today, and based on its analysis of production data it predicts that depletion of these reservoirs is faster than previously estimated.
The agency predicts global total energy demand to increase by 45% in the next 22 years.